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I've been working on this long post, a discourse of Gustav and aftermath. However, nature has presented a stronger, and more urgent, topic I must comment on.
That topic is Hurricane Ike.
Last week was a mix of relief and fear, a celebration of survival from Gustav and a party of anticipation for Ike. The danger of Ike loomed large in our daily thoughts, but once the course was projected toward Texas, a wave of confidence fell back upon the land. Except Texas of course.
On Monday I had a few neighbors, in light of my remarkable meteorological avocation, ask my opinion about the path of Ike. Mind you, this is long before the storm passed the 90th meridian, when the "cone" stretched from Brownsville to Pensacola, a massive swath of possibility. My thoughts? By Saturday afternoon, Ike would be passing through Houston. That pronouncement was met with some skepticism. I believe this was mostly due to the influence of the NHC's forecast, an uber-conservative view entirely too dependent on computer models instead of intuitive weather pattern analysis. I persisted, however, and was, of course, vindicated. But I digress. This is not all about me.
Yesterday morning, the tides suddenly began rising, flooding areas in Southeast Louisiana. By the afternoon waves were topping 10 feet at the mouth of the Mississippi and smashing the tide walls on Lakeshore Drive. Winds were gusting to 40 mph. Rains poured in bursts. The outer bands of Ike were hitting the coast. By bedtime those waves were 18 feet at Venice and Grand Isle, floodgates were being closed around the city and winds were pushing upward of 50. This morning all schools were closed, mandatory evacuations were long enacted in low-lying parishes and emergency procedures were active. Translated to common terms, Hurricane Ike was already doing more damage to the coast than Gustav, yet was more than 200 miles from New Orleans.
I'm long in wind, so I'll get to my thing. This is no "easy" storm coming ashore. Houston is about to get pummeled by a lethal hurricane. Oil and chemical production, as well as active petroleum fields are completely shut down, effectively clamping down most of domestic oil supplies and the lion's share of gasoline refining for our country. More than three million people are in the path of the storm, staring, as CNN put it, down the barrel of a gun.
But catch this, people. Where is the president? Where are those candidates that shook hands and promised supported prior to Gustav? Yeah. They're no where to be found. The Gulf Coast stands to take a huge hit from this storm, likely downing the largest source of fossil fuels our country depends on. Texas politicians are fumbling with their options. Houston hasn't even enacted contra-flow, instead encouraging citizens to stay put if they weren't in a low-lying area. Almost all of Houston is a low-lying area.
Remember what I bitched about last week, that our government's response was nothing but a publicity stunt, a PR opportunity for all? I don't see jack being done for Houston. FEMA? Not only did they fail in the response to Gustav, plying us with bullshit preparation, but they've made next to no advances for Ike. Look, when Chertoff said 80 truckloads of ice were staged for Louisiana recovery from Gustav, the reality was 30 trucks, and they weren't even ready to roll. Federal food stamps? Utter debacle. Even the MRE distro points were fucked up.
So what do you think is about to happen with Ike? I can only hope for the best, that I'm completely off-base about the fed's actions. But my gut says otherwise. When Houston is flooded, when Galveston is devastated to point of the 1900 hurricane, people will be shocked by the trauma. Keep in mind, while the 1900 hurricane had greater estimated winds, guessed to be 120 mph, the central pressure, at landfall, was 964 mbar. As comparison, Ike currently has winds of 105 and a central pressure of 953 mbar. 953. That means the eye of Ike, is far more concentrated than the killer storm of 1900. The size of Ike has approximated, if not exceeded, the girth of Katrina. The storm surge has already reached the ones seen for both Katrina and Rita. Ike is big, and Ike is nasty.
Next week, if this is a dud, please chastise me as an alarmist.
But if this is a monster, if Ike rips up the upper Texas shores, our country will wake up and see what's happening down here. This is not an effort to save New Orleans. Ours is a threat to the entire Gulf Coast. When the politicians think spending money to save the Crescent City is folly, maybe they'll be shook to the core, and understand the government has allowed Big Oil to carve away nature's defenses against tropical cyclones. Forget the offshore drilling laws, Congress. The largest source of fuel for our country is on the line. Not to mention every person living and working on those shores. Hear me, America. You need to save the Gulf Coast. Now.
That topic is Hurricane Ike.
Last week was a mix of relief and fear, a celebration of survival from Gustav and a party of anticipation for Ike. The danger of Ike loomed large in our daily thoughts, but once the course was projected toward Texas, a wave of confidence fell back upon the land. Except Texas of course.
On Monday I had a few neighbors, in light of my remarkable meteorological avocation, ask my opinion about the path of Ike. Mind you, this is long before the storm passed the 90th meridian, when the "cone" stretched from Brownsville to Pensacola, a massive swath of possibility. My thoughts? By Saturday afternoon, Ike would be passing through Houston. That pronouncement was met with some skepticism. I believe this was mostly due to the influence of the NHC's forecast, an uber-conservative view entirely too dependent on computer models instead of intuitive weather pattern analysis. I persisted, however, and was, of course, vindicated. But I digress. This is not all about me.
Yesterday morning, the tides suddenly began rising, flooding areas in Southeast Louisiana. By the afternoon waves were topping 10 feet at the mouth of the Mississippi and smashing the tide walls on Lakeshore Drive. Winds were gusting to 40 mph. Rains poured in bursts. The outer bands of Ike were hitting the coast. By bedtime those waves were 18 feet at Venice and Grand Isle, floodgates were being closed around the city and winds were pushing upward of 50. This morning all schools were closed, mandatory evacuations were long enacted in low-lying parishes and emergency procedures were active. Translated to common terms, Hurricane Ike was already doing more damage to the coast than Gustav, yet was more than 200 miles from New Orleans.
I'm long in wind, so I'll get to my thing. This is no "easy" storm coming ashore. Houston is about to get pummeled by a lethal hurricane. Oil and chemical production, as well as active petroleum fields are completely shut down, effectively clamping down most of domestic oil supplies and the lion's share of gasoline refining for our country. More than three million people are in the path of the storm, staring, as CNN put it, down the barrel of a gun.
But catch this, people. Where is the president? Where are those candidates that shook hands and promised supported prior to Gustav? Yeah. They're no where to be found. The Gulf Coast stands to take a huge hit from this storm, likely downing the largest source of fossil fuels our country depends on. Texas politicians are fumbling with their options. Houston hasn't even enacted contra-flow, instead encouraging citizens to stay put if they weren't in a low-lying area. Almost all of Houston is a low-lying area.
Remember what I bitched about last week, that our government's response was nothing but a publicity stunt, a PR opportunity for all? I don't see jack being done for Houston. FEMA? Not only did they fail in the response to Gustav, plying us with bullshit preparation, but they've made next to no advances for Ike. Look, when Chertoff said 80 truckloads of ice were staged for Louisiana recovery from Gustav, the reality was 30 trucks, and they weren't even ready to roll. Federal food stamps? Utter debacle. Even the MRE distro points were fucked up.
So what do you think is about to happen with Ike? I can only hope for the best, that I'm completely off-base about the fed's actions. But my gut says otherwise. When Houston is flooded, when Galveston is devastated to point of the 1900 hurricane, people will be shocked by the trauma. Keep in mind, while the 1900 hurricane had greater estimated winds, guessed to be 120 mph, the central pressure, at landfall, was 964 mbar. As comparison, Ike currently has winds of 105 and a central pressure of 953 mbar. 953. That means the eye of Ike, is far more concentrated than the killer storm of 1900. The size of Ike has approximated, if not exceeded, the girth of Katrina. The storm surge has already reached the ones seen for both Katrina and Rita. Ike is big, and Ike is nasty.
Next week, if this is a dud, please chastise me as an alarmist.
But if this is a monster, if Ike rips up the upper Texas shores, our country will wake up and see what's happening down here. This is not an effort to save New Orleans. Ours is a threat to the entire Gulf Coast. When the politicians think spending money to save the Crescent City is folly, maybe they'll be shook to the core, and understand the government has allowed Big Oil to carve away nature's defenses against tropical cyclones. Forget the offshore drilling laws, Congress. The largest source of fuel for our country is on the line. Not to mention every person living and working on those shores. Hear me, America. You need to save the Gulf Coast. Now.
